USEDCARSALESMAN

Enhancing the Success of Hollywood Studios in the Early 21st Century

Here's a fact: Usedcarsalesman isn't a software engineer, he can't code a networked video game and he can barely piece together the HTML for a web site.

            

Even so, personal computers are not totally foreign to him. Usedcarsalesman first used a CompuServe Bulletin Board Service on a neighborhood friend's computer in 1986, first used email at college in 1992 when Bill Clinton's campaign staff were the only people "in-the-know" enough to do so, and he was using word processors since practically the beginning of Ronald Reagan's first term. 

             

However, Usedcarsalesman has never found personal computers anything other than "complementary" to his life. They were certainly not the focus of his life and nor were they something Usedcarsalesman ever wished to program.  Usedcarsalesman happily left that work to the few, tens-of-thousands of trained persons who had the necessary knowledge and inclination. So, Personal computers? Not really Usedcarsalesman's thing.

            

Unlike personal computers, video cameras are a different story for Usedcarsalesman. They are something he has worked with in the past and thinks about regularly.   In fact, Usedcarsalesman currently thinks he can put together a high-quality movie using a $3000 "Pro-sumer" High-Definition camera, Mac video-editing software, a self-written script, and local unemployed Union Hollywood actors (using the Screen Actor's Guild's Low-Budget Contracts).  He also thinks that said video production will have the appearance of being a $5-10 million production (even $50 million if you get performances from the actors on par with the 30 million dollar salaries paid to some big-name union talent). Yet, this movie will only cost, maybe $10,000 to $20,000 to produce.
             
Hollywood could read Usedcarsalesman and say:  "This Usedcarsalesman guy is right.  You can use these new cameras and editing tools and on a $10,000 budget produce a 2-hour film that looks like it cost 5 million to make."  And then: "Hell though, if it only costs $10,000 to do something that looks that good, then everybody from Kenya to Kansas is going to be doing it.  Hollywood could lose its place as the center of the film and TV business! We need to find another entertainment business to control, one that has more barriers-to-entry.  Either that or we need to find a way to profitably "play" this pro-sumer video technology that threatens our current business.   

             

Usedcarsalesman would agree and suggests the following:

1. Partner more with the network video game makers such as Electronic Arts, Activision, etc. This will take part of Hollywood in a exciting, money-making direction that capitalizes on the young and pre-middle-age crowd. And it will allow Hollywood to come to dominate in a new entertainment field as their dominance in others may falter (like Usedcarsalesman said before, he can't program a video game; no threats from him there).
2. Take more cheap risks on these new, cheap film/tv productions. Spend a matter of a few thousand here and a few thousand there to finance the type of inexpensive "movie" Usedcarsalesman described above, one made using the new High-quality, "Pro-sumer" HD tools and the surplus of SAG actors. Sure 19 out of 20 of these productions will fail, but the one that hit will likely cover the losses (and Usedcarsalesman suspects that the ratio of successes to failures will initially be more like 1 out of 4 since this is an emerging field that will take the public by surprise).  Manage these productions to completion, slap your studio's name on them to give them legitimacy, and find a way -- while avoiding anti-trust entanglements -- to distribute these productions using on-line-ordered DVDs, through companies like NetFlix or Amazon.com, or by way of high-quality Internet downloads, cable or satellite Pay-Per-View, or Digital Distribution in traditional movie-theaters. Note: Usedcarsalesman could even see this course of action providing Hollywood Studios with an economical means to provide content that is more pleasing to audiences in politically "Red" states.

Usedcarsalesman obviously doesn't want Hollywood to discontinue traditional, big-budget film and television productions.  They are like the pyramids of Egypt -- something that are probably always going to be around. But Usedcarsalesman would submit that by diversifying more in to the two areas mentioned, Hollywood may again display its historically winning, strategic wisdom.

The Middlemen are Dead. Long Live the Middlemen (and Salesmen and Consultants, too).

Usedcarsalesman recalls life in the 1990s almost as clearly as if he had imagined it all himself. The impressions made on him by the new "actors" which had emerged -- the World Wide Web, Wall Street analysts now on television, pasty-faced "entrepreneurs" touting oddly-named public companies making less of a profit than a kindergartner's lemonade stand, spin-doctors good enough to talk God in to fronting a Ronnie James Dio Tribute Band -- all still stick. 

         

One theme from that time that also stood out especially strongly for Usedcarsalesman was that technology could "cut-out-the-middleman."  That is, if he bought "on-line" and "went-direct," he -- as a consumer -- could save money by eliminating contact with people traditionally working in the "middle" of business transactions. This all sounded "good" to Usedcarsalesman, but it wasn't exactly new to his way of thinking.

You see, Usedcarsalesman had similar "go-direct" feelings about "middlemen" as a youth in the 1970s and 1980s. As he began to accumulate modest funds to spend, he began to wonder: "why can't people buy cars directly from the factory without using a dealer, why can't we buy investments without calling a broker, why do we need some real estate broker's agent to show us a house when we buy real estate?"

                

For example, young Usedcarsalesman could order a high-end car stereo or clothes directly from a paper catalog.  So, why would he want to go to a retail store and pay more for the same items in order to cover a salesman's commission?  To Usedcarsalesman, It simply didn't seem that "middlemen" or their sales people added any value that might justify the higher price of a retail purchase. 

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Considering his early disdain for "middlemen" and his witness of their seemingly career-ending defeat versus the Web in the 1990s, you'd think that Usedcarsalesman would pronounce their business -- across-the-board -- as "dead."  Actually, in 2004 Usedcarsalesman believes something different:  that which "killed" them in the 1990s -- the Web -- may actually bring middlemen and their salespeople great prosperity in the future.  Ironically, the World Wide Web and Internet-based commerce has created an environment exponentially more conducive to the business of "middlemen" and their salespeople than ever before. 

          

If they are working on the "sell-side" of a transaction, "middlemen" are now capable of representing a product or service to a global marketplace, to almost a billion potential buyers on-line. For example, a guy who may have sold cement mixers -- as either a "middleman" or one of his salesmen -- in a mid-size U.S. town in the 1980s now has the potential to pitch them globally by teleconference or by a broadband video "ad" that he can cut for his or his company's site.  This guy can now get face-to-face with millions of people, many who were formerly out of reach.  Consider legions of "middlemen" and their salespeople reinventing themselves almost in to Home Shopping Network-type hosts and hostesses for a particular product.

               

At the same time, some "middlemen" (or their salespeople) -- especially those with keen industry and product expertise -- will find the web a place that enables them to work efficiently on the "buy-side" of transactions.  Thus, they might find great success as "consultants" working as described below:

• Since e-commerce on the World Wide Web offers more goods and services for sale, often more cheaply than before, and often with no salespeople to pay commissions to, modern consumers might increasingly employ consultants to advise on a transaction.   Effectively, such a web-based buyer's consultant could become the global point-person -- the knowledgeable individual whom everybody world-wide contacts when they need to make a particular purchase -- for a specific class of goods or services.
• Taking no fees or commissions from sellers, these former "middlemen" or salespeople will earn their money as a fee paid by the buyer at the beginning and end of a transaction.  They will work on behalf of buyers to identify the best product or service -- large or small -- for them, to find them the lowest price available, and always with the  buyer's/client's interests solely in mind.
• It is possible that such consultants/advisers could work as a team for a particular buyer.  You've probably noticed that the more people you have helping you, who have your interests in mind, the easier it is for you to make a highly satisfactory business transaction. For example, let's say you go on a vacation in the future. You might employ a dozen specialized consultants to make your trip as smooth as possible. Each of these independent, buyer's consultants will focus on a different aspect of your vacation: customized site-seeing, dining, hotels, tour guidance, translation, whatever. You might take the trip and find that you have never had an experience that fit you so perfectly, since every angle was covered.
• Buyers might find it worthwhile to employ a different set of on-line consultants when they shop for a car, look for a new house, seek a college for you child, choose a new type of work, investigate medical treatment or cosmetic surgery, shop for holiday gifts, buy clothes, play sports, resolve conflicts, basically anything and everything that could be made easier with the advice of numerous experts.  A buy-side consultant might find it inexpensive to operate on the web; buyers might find it correspondingly frictionless and inexpensive to employ this consultant's services.  As such, buyers might find it now affordable to assemble a team of such advisers for many on-line purchases, whether large or small.   

Whether middleman, salesperson, consultant, whether buy-side or sell-side, all will find that the Web is indifferent to location and enables independent action.  It may also "level" hierarchies and give formerly low-level players opportunities for greatness.  In the end, rather than destroying middlemen, Usedcarsalesman believes that the Web has actually enabled them and expanded their horizons. The Middlemen are dead. Long live the Middlemen (and Salespeople and Consultants, too).

Online Personality and Apptitude Testing

Usedcarsalesman took a personality test on-line the other day and he was not too surprised the conclusions it drew about him.  'Used' won't get too specific about the test's result, but let's just say that it suggested he was:  "better at this, not so good at that, more inclined to enjoy this, tends to expect people to do that" and so on. To be honest, Usedcarsalesman did not find out too much about himself from the test that he didn't already know.

         

Apparently businesses and other organizations have long used these tests to gage the personality and skill set of employees.  For example, the U.S. Armed Forces have long used a test -- Usedcarsalesman believes its known as the ASVAB -- that allows it to measure the aptitudes of recruits.  Businesses such as  Commercial Real-Estate Brokerages also apparently test applicants to gage their potential success in a sales career.

            

But, what happens if a business or organization doesn't do that. Does it end up with a legion of employees ill-suited for their jobs? Or does it do what most of such companies do:  use their human resources office to examine the work experience of an applicant and try to draw some seemingly reasonable conclusions from that?

            

Frankly its probably the latter and Usedcarsalesman has seen the faulty process go something like this: if an applicant's related work experience and the time invested in gaining this experience are adequate and check-out, then the reviewing organization sees a case made regarding this applicant's aptitudes for the work and suitability for employment with them.  After all, who would work at something they are not suited to for 10 years with three different prestigious, respected companies, right?

                

Unfortunately, Usedcarsalesman says:  "Probably more people than most companies think."  After all,  people need a job and money to pay the bills.  As a result,  regular people often become excellent "actors" by necessity -- they can seem ideally suited to a line-of-work even if they are not, just so they can say employed, support their families, etc.  This is sad for these people and less-than-ideal for an organization' efficienct operation. 

                  

However, after taking his on-line-personality and aptitudes test, Usedcarsalesman can see that these tests may provide some salvation for people who are struggling with essentially "acting for a salary," working in a job for which thy are unsuited. 

             

Now that people can take these on-line tests and easily determine their aptitudes and personality for themselves, they can then use this information -- along with additional education and efforts to gain experience -- to make a case for appropriate employment elsewhere.  This is good for both the organizations they are currently with and for the organizations that they move to.

The Internet (Web), "Space People," and Living Abroad in the 21st Century

Usedcarsalesman has long had fantasies about moving from the United States to nations abroad that have a lower costs-of-living and cheaper real estate prices. Now that he lives in L.A. -- with its, shall we say, "mildly" overpriced real estate values -- his thoughts of moving abroad down the road have once again emerged.

    

Of course he -- like most U.S. citizens who have considered such moves -- sighs as he ponders what he will do for work in these cheap and exotic locales.  Will he guide tours, grow bananas to sun-dry, manage people in the local sex trade? Until the last few years, Usedcarsalesman didn't have a viable answer to this question.

          

Fortunately for him, the World Wide Web has emerged and with it, what Usedcarsalesman has termed, "Space People."  "Space People" can literally make a living anywhere on earth (and someday off-earth?) where they can access the World Wide Web. Typically, these "Space People" make there livings doing corporate advisory work, journalism, network security, programming or other endeavors involving intellectual property."  Frankly, your humble author could see himself doing this kind of aforementioned work from an estate in Belize that he could purchase for the price of a shabby, one-bedroom L.A. condo (ha ha).

            

In a short time, he suspects that you may even see "Space People" begin to perform additional types of work, again irrespective of their location. They will begin to teach, direct, sell, and provide medical or legal consultation by video conference.  You will also see them operating remote vehicles and surgical instruments or other equipment at a distance. 

          

Thanks to the Web and high-speed connections, Usedcarsalesman believes that more and more people in more and more jobs are going to have the potential to become "Space People" -- people who can move and live anywhere in the world, but still do jobs typically done in population centers.

                                                                            -

Is Usedcarsalesman suggesting that legions of "Space People" from the U.S. and other "info-technology" nations are going to descend on sunny places like South and Central America, Mexico, Coastal Asia, Eastern Australia, New Zealand and Coastal Africa to take advantage of cheaper real estate prices and costs of living?  Yes, he does think this.

            

The aforementioned areas have climates comparable to Southern California. And a lot of the time, the cost of real estate and developed property in those areas is 1/100th to 1/2 the price of similar real estate in Southern California.  Usedcarsalesman doesn't think this "exodus" is going to happen overnight; it's probably going to take the entire 21st century. But, the forces leading the way -- including the Web -- are certainly strong. 

Are there any drawbacks, though?  Usedcarsalesman  did bring up the issues of "services" -- hospitals, public safety, schools, water treatment, roads and transportation -- abroad. Unfortunately, it is precisely the aforementioned services -- or often lack there of -- that often serves as the "deal-breaker" for most people seeking to relocate internationally.

         

After all, there is no point in moving to beautiful eastern coastal Africa if you are constantly endanger of being killed by teams of men wielding AK-47 assault rifles that they can buy for 10 bucks apiece. There is no point to moving to parts of coastal Asia when their is no plumbing or decent health-care of which to speak.

However, Usedcarsalesman thinks that leaders from South and Central America, Mexico, Coastal Asia, Eastern Australia, New Zealand and Coastal Africa, will actively market their respective countries to "Space People" -- much as U.S. Governors promote their States as locations for foreign business.  By catering to the "Space People" and promoting the creation of additional services and infrastructure, Usedcarsalesman sees these leaders enrich their native citizenry and ultimately their own political power as well. 

In conclusion, Usedcarsalesman salutes the Internet and Web for helping to make all of this happen. It enables people to do the white-collar work typically done in the most important cities in the world while simultaneously living in what Usedcarsalesman would normally consider a sunny vacation spot.  It spreads out people's locations so we are not such big targets -- as urban areas obviously are -- for international terrorism.  It has changed for the better how a lot of people may live in the 21st century.

War in Iraq, 2004

Usedcarsalesman was in college down at The University of Virginia when the first Gulf War was being fought in 1990 and 1991.  Back then, he'd routinely come back to his place after classes each day, sit on the couch and watch CNN footage of various Iraqi targets being "taken out" by laser-guided missiles.  At the time Usedcarsalesman thought: "Man, those guys at the Pentagon really got their s%#t together."

 

Even then, Usedcarsalesman realized that the Pentagon "got their "s%#t together" probably as a result of a major institutional overhaul since the Vietnam War.  And this overhaul probably included doing things such as "gaming" a "War in the Persian Gulf" a million times, just as the Pentagon had gamed through defense of Europe against a Soviet Tank onslaught during the Cold War.
            
With this in mind, Usedcarsalesman now looks at current events in the Persian Gulf and asks:  "What happened with the "gaming" of the invasion and occupation of Iraq by the U.S. and coalition forces, post-9/11?" Didn't the U.S. and coalition forces have intelligence personnel who had done a million games of "IRAQI FREEDOM" in the 90s and who then concluded: 

1. This is how we win Iraq. 
2. This is how we deal with its insurgents and holdout areas.
3. This is how we deal with people who were family (and who might still hold a few grudges) to the 100,000 Iraqi soldiers killed 10 years ago in the first Gulf War.
4. This is how we deal with IEDs.

Unfortunately, Usedcarsalesman really doesn't know the answer. More than a thousand U.S. citizen/ soldiers have died in Iraq so far in the last fiscal year or so largely from IEDs or stray gunfire.

Obviously, this is outrageous in light of Desert Storm, circa '91, in which the U.S. lost a grand total of what, 160 people (mostly due to car accidents in US held areas and one stray scud)?!  And Usedcarsalesman says that even if the US did not "game" IEDs in to their post-9/11 Iraqi invasion plan, Usedcarsalesman maintains that there is no excuse for a failure to address the current threat to the Coalition soldiers.

In fact, the U.S. military has publicly demonstrated that it is capable of rapid, mid-conflict procurements of military materials when it wants to. For example, in 1991 when U.S. forces confronted a buried Iraqi command bunker that they could not destroy with laser-guided bombs, coalition forces developed a "Bunker-Buster" -- a chopped-off battleship gun barrel filled with gunpowder, capped at the ends and dropped from a fighter-bomber -- within in a matter of days.  This scratch-built bomb was shipped to Iraq and then employed successfully within hours of being in country.
             
Is developing a bunker buster -- other than requiring significantly less mass-production -- any different from better protecting a large number of coalition troops in Iraq in 2004? And if insurgents are using car bombs and package bombs or booby traps or whatever on a massive scale to foil U.S. coalition efforts,, is it not an immediate national imperative, just as with the '91 Bunker-Buster, to make sure our forces receive the proper weapons and equipment?

Usedcarsalesman says that the words of the U.S. and Coalition military leaders should now read like the following: "I don't care if you have to equip 500,000 U.S. soldiers with solar-powered, air-conditioned, Kevlar-ceramic-plated, bomb-squad suits... you get that gear on the troops within the week! I don't care if you have to outfit every Humvee with exploding-reactive armor from Israel, you get that gear on there a day from now if you are serious about winning!"

Usedcarsalesman cannot account for this oversight by the U.S. generals or intelligence officials responsible for these matters. And unfortunately, based on the number of U.S. troops dead or catastrophically injured thus far, it would appear somebody has forgotten (or chosen to forget) the near perfect U.S./Coalition execution of the Gulf War in 1991.

Usedcarsalesman will, however, say that he is heartened that the U.S. and Coalition leaders have shown a precedent of learning from mistakes in the past.  Troops need them to do the same, only much faster this time.

Hollywood on Video Games

Usedcarsalesman has lived in Hollywood, Ca. for the last year or so and, yes, he's working in entertainment production.

            

During that time, he's happened to have noticed signs of a small trend in Tinseltown: folks like actors (for voice, motion and use-of-likeness), writers, and directors are starting to lend their talents to the production of network video games.  Usedcarsalesman sees this as a smart move for them.

       

At first, though, he was a little skeptical since he wasn't sure that the network gaming could have any main-stream appeal as entertainment. And what he had seen so far hadn't appeared to main-stream.

         

For example, over the last year, Usedcarsalesman had encountered guys in the basement of an internet cafe on Sunset Blvd. wearing headsets and playing network games.  To him, it was amusing to hear these weighty 20-30+ year old dudes authoritatively command their on-line teammates in a game called Counterstrike.  These guys certainly seemed involved in what they were doing, but Usedcarsalesman had other things to do and really didn't give them much thought or pay their games any attention.

                     

However, in later, idle moments on the LA freeways, Usedcarsalesman had a chance to recall the sound of the interaction between the players of this CounterStrike game.  Their short blurts by headset to one another sounding like Colin Powell outlining a military gameplan, their occasional frantic yells, their tone always sounding as if their profanity-laden talk was more than justified by an extreme "game-situation" they were facing.

            

Frankly, it sounded like these guys were actually in some kind of Hollywood military movie!? And Usedcarsalesman research indicated that the U.S. military had long used just his type of networked simulation -- essentially a networked game -- to train pilots and tank drivers for combat.

       

Not in the military and in a fit of boredom (probably not helped at the time by the fact that the girl he was seeing moved back to Austria), Usedcarsalesman went to Fry's and dropped the cash for well-reviewed PC game called Unreal Tournament 2004 that allowed for the team-type play brought to his attention at the Blvd. Cafe.  Usedcarsalesman loaded the game and ran it on his P4 desktop with a 9800 video card and a half-way decent DSL connection (1.8 MBPS).  He then became familiar with the gameplay, bought a head-set and joined in a team-game, on-line with other UT 2004 players. 

          

His conclusion?  Yeah, maybe these games do have mainstream potential.  Video game technology -- thanks to the web, high speed residential internet connections, increasingly powerful PCs, ad PC "video cards" that practically had desk-top power in their own right --  had now apparently evolved in to something approaching real-time films or TV shows that had actors (avatars) controlled by players around the world. 

            

Since Hollywood was tradtionally about the film and TV business and the appearance and play of these video games was approaching a real-time form of interractive film and Tv, Usedcarsalesman could see why show-biz-types were looking at these networked games as serious business!

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After his exclamation you may be thinking:  "Gee, welcome to the world of modern video gaming, Usedcarsalesman...Video games have actually evolved quite a bit since Pong, haven't they?"

          

Usedcarsalesman would respond:  Yes, yes, he knows, but don't think he's a video game virgin.  He started fairly early in the home-gaming scene himself, receiving an Intellivision for Xmas '81 so he could play the first MLB-licensed baseball video game (even had voice simulation: "You're out!!).  And he paid attention as home-video-gaming evolved from th Atari 2600 and Intellivision in the late 70s and early 80s to basic PC, Commodore, TRS-80, Atari 400/800 games and ColecoVision, Atari 5200 and Nintendo NES domination in the mid-80s, and to the Sony Playstation, Nintendo 64 and the ascendency of FPS PC-games (with some attempts at network play over 16-56kbps modems) in the web roll-out of the 1990s.  No doubt about it, he remembers how video gaming used to be.

            

But in addition to playing and seeing local industry types get involved, Usedcarsalesman has recently seen additional hints of where video games -- modern networked video games -- appears to be headed in the future entertainment landscape.  For example, The University of Southern California (with the top film and television program in the U.S.) has started a "minor" program for students seeking to produce and program network games. Maybe the future George Lucas -- himself, a USC film and TV undergrad -- of the network gaming industry will emerge from USC thanks to this program. 

            

Usedcarsaleman now thinks that network video games are to the beginning of the 21st century and Hollywood what the first movies were in the 20th century. He expects to see major growth in the number of network game players over the next 40 years, if film/tv viewership history is any indication. And he expects to see all big-name, Hollywood talent and production-types start to get involved in the business of network video games, especially more story-driven, "mass-appeal" games that resemble a Hollywood film or TV show.